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Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine sales to decline over next five years due to Pfizer competition, says GlobalData

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Johnson & Johnson’s (J&J’s) COVID-19 vaccine sales are forecast to consistently decline between 2022 and 2027, according to GlobalData, largely due to competition from Pfizer.

The leading data and analytics company’s forecast for J&J decreased by an average of 35% from Q3 2021 to Q4 2021, and is now expected to generate $6.7 billion in sales between 2021 and 2027, compared to 134.3 billion generated by Pfizer/BioNtech’s Comirnaty.

Camila Dalitz, Analyst for Drugs Databases, comments “J&J is going to see strong competition from Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty (tozinameran) in lower-/middle-income countries.”

Adverse events could also play a role in the decline in sales forecast for the J&J vaccine.

Dalitz continues: “The Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has found a possible link between J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine and rare cases of venous thromboembolism. In addition, the EU has recommended including a warning for the rare side effect transverse myelitis on the packaging of the vaccine. This adds to J&J’s problems as the company recently settled claims related to causing an opioid crisis in the US.”

In 2021, the sales of J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine are forecast to be higher in the US than in the rest of the world, mainly due to purchasing from the US government.

Dalitz explains: “Starting in 2022, J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine sales will be higher in non-US countries than in the US itself due to the convenience a single-dose vaccine brings to developing countries that lack the logistics for multidose vaccines.”

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