The ASEAN+3 region emerges as a beacon of growth and stability in an era where the global economic landscape constantly shifts. According to the latest quarterly update from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the region is on track to outperform its previous growth estimates in 2024, setting a vibrant tone for economic activities in Asia.
The report, a meticulous synthesis of economic data and trends, projects an optimistic growth rate of 4.5 percent for 2024. This figure, steadfast in its promise, reflects an upward trajectory from the 4.4 percent full-year growth anticipated for 2023. The upward revision is a testament to the region’s resilience and dynamic response to global economic uncertainties.
Central to this optimistic outlook is China’s robust performance. The dragon economy is set to expand by 5.2 percent, higher than previously estimated. This surge is attributed to the stabilization of industrial and service sectors in China, infusing additional vigour into the regional economy. The ripple effects of this growth are expected to cascade through the ASEAN+3, elevating the region’s economic landscape.
“The recovery in the global tech cycle is starting to be felt in the region’s export performance, especially for electronics,” said Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO’s Chief Economist. His observation underscores the synchronicity between the regional and global tech trends, highlighting the ASEAN+3’s integral role in the worldwide supply chain.
However, the journey is not without its hurdles. The report cautions against complacency, citing the lingering risk of spiking global commodity prices and potential policy uncertainties linked to the US elections in late 2024. “We still cannot rule out a US recession,” Khor added, pointing to a scenario that could halve the region’s GDP growth.
Inflation, a global concern, is also addressed in the report. The ASEAN+3 region, excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar, is expected to see inflation moderate to 2.6 percent in 2024, a slight ease from the 2.8 percent estimated for 2023. This trend mirrors the global movement in commodity prices, offering a silver lining amid the inflationary clouds.
The comprehensive AREO report, slated for release in April 2024, is highly anticipated. It promises to provide deeper insights into the ASEAN+3’s economic trajectory, offering valuable perspectives for policymakers, investors, and economists alike.
In conclusion, the ASEAN+3 region is pivotal and poised for more robust growth in 2024. Amidst the global economic uncertainties, the region’s resilience and dynamic economic policies pave the way for a future filled with potential and promise.
Written by: Supaporn Pholrach (Joom)
